Hassan Maishera
TL;DR
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Cardano (ADA) is still underperforming below $0.2500 after five days of losses.
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Bearish derivatives positioning and weak technical indicators continue to limit upside momentum, keeping the short-term outlook cautious.
Cardano is still underperforming after five consecutive days of losses, trading below $0.250 on Wednesday. While short-term price action remains under pressure, on-chain data suggests large holders are quietly accumulating during the recent correction, pointing to sustained long-term interest.
Whale wallets accumulate over 250 million ADA
Data from Santiment shows that whale wallets have been actively buying the dip during Cardano’s recent decline. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA, 1 million to 10 million ADA, and 10 million to 100 million ADA collectively accumulated around 250 million tokens since May 11.
This accumulation trend is often interpreted as a sign of long-term conviction, suggesting that larger investors view recent weakness as a buying opportunity rather than a structural breakdown.
Despite accumulation activity, derivatives data paint a more cautious picture. CoinGlass shows Cardano’s long-to-short ratio at 0.80, indicating that more traders are currently positioned for downside moves. This reflects bearish sentiment across leveraged markets, with short positions outweighing longs.
However, funding rate data tells a slightly different story. The OI-weighted funding rate turned positive on Sunday and now sits at 0.0072%, suggesting that long positions are gradually gaining traction, even as overall sentiment remains mixed.
Cardano technical outlook: ADA remains under pressure
The ADA/USD 4H chart remains bearish and efficient as Cardano is trading below its major moving averages, keeping the broader trend tilted bearish.
The token remains under the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, reinforcing resistance zones above current price levels.
Momentum indicators also reflect weak recovery strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 43, while the MACD remains in negative territory, signaling limited bullish momentum and suggesting that upside moves may face strong resistance.
If the bulls regain control, immediate resistance is located near $0.258 at the 50-day EMA, followed by $0.271 psychological area and $0.274 at a key trendline resistance.
Stronger barriers appear at $0.280 (100-day EMA) and $0.299, with further resistance near $0.303.
However, if the bearish trend persists, the initial support would be found at $0.245. A daily candle close below this level could see ADA drop towards the $0.236 support.
