Hassan Maishera
TL;DR
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CryptoQuant says Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a new bull market after gaining more than 25% since early last week.
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A decisive close above the 365-day moving average at approximately $83,100 is required to confirm the bullish transition.
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CryptoQuant’s Bull Score surged from 30 to 80, with eight of its 10 indicators now flashing bullish.
Bitcoin may have entered the early phase of a new bull market after rallying more than 25% since early last week, according to CryptoQuant.
However, the onchain analytics firm said the cryptocurrency still needs to close decisively above its 365-day moving average, currently near $83,100, to confirm the bullish transition.
Macro Catalysts Push Bitcoin Above $81,000
Bitcoin climbed above $81,000 this week as two macroeconomic and political developments strengthened market sentiment.
The US Treasury plans to increase long-term government bond buybacks from September 9, doubling the maximum amount to at least $4 billion per operation. The initiative could improve market liquidity and support demand for risk assets.
President Donald Trump also suggested that the US government may be considering purchasing Bitcoin, adding to expectations of stronger sovereign and institutional demand.
These catalysts helped Bitcoin extend its gains, although the cryptocurrency subsequently closed near $79,000.
CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said Bitcoin’s historical bull markets have officially started when the price crosses above its 365-day moving average. Moves below the indicator have similarly confirmed previous bear markets.
Bitcoin’s latest close near $79,000 placed it approximately 5% below the 365-day moving average at $83,100.
A decisive break above $83,000 would therefore confirm the beginning of a new bull market based on CryptoQuant’s framework. Until that happens, the level could act as significant resistance and trigger an early-stage correction.
CryptoQuant Bull Score Jumps to 80
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score rose from 30 to 80 within one week, marking its strongest reading since October 6, 2025.
Bitcoin traded near $124,000 when the indicator last reached a comparable level. Eight of the score’s 10 onchain, market and valuation metrics are now generating bullish signals.
The sharp improvement suggests that the latest rally is supported by a broad shift in market fundamentals rather than price momentum alone.
Bitcoin’s apparent spot demand is expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December, according to CryptoQuant.
Spot and futures demand are also increasing simultaneously for the first time since early October 2025, when Bitcoin reached its previous all-time high.
CryptoQuant said this combination reflects genuine spot accumulation alongside the return of leveraged traders. Growing spot demand could provide a stronger foundation for the rally, while rising leverage may amplify both gains and potential corrections.
Despite the improving long-term outlook, CryptoQuant warned that Bitcoin looks overheated over shorter time frames.
Traders’ unrealized profit margin has climbed to 20.5%, its highest level since June 2025. Similar readings have historically encouraged investors to realize gains, increasing selling pressure.
This elevated profitability suggests that Bitcoin could experience a pullback before making another attempt to break above the $83,000 resistance.
New Whales Realize $1.2 Billion in Profits
Short-term holders, including newer Bitcoin whales, have already started locking in profits.
These investors realized approximately $1.2 billion in gains between August 20 and August 22. The total included a single-day record of $614 million on August 20, when Bitcoin traded between $78,000 and $79,000.
The profit-taking indicates that some large holders are reducing exposure following the rapid price increase.
Cryptocurrency deposits to exchanges have risen sharply across Bitcoin, Ether, XRP and other digital assets.
Bitcoin exchange inflows increased to approximately 53,000 BTC, their highest level since June 5. Ether deposits climbed to about 1.7 million ETH, also reaching their highest level since that date.
Meanwhile, XRP whale inflows reached approximately 460 million tokens, the highest since February. Seven-day cumulative altcoin deposits rose to about 39,000 transactions, their highest level since early July, with most of the transfers directed to Binance.
Moving assets onto exchanges does not guarantee an immediate sale. However, sudden inflow spikes following a strong rally can indicate that holders intend to take profits, hedge their positions or distribute assets.
The increased readily sellable supply reinforces the possibility of short-term volatility as Bitcoin approaches the crucial $83,000 threshold.
