Nikolas Sargeant
TL;DR
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President Donald Trump has backed CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s push for exclusive federal authority over prediction markets.
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The move intensifies an ongoing legal battle between federal regulators and several U.S. states over jurisdiction, while highlighting the growing political and financial importance of crypto-linked prediction markets.
President Donald Trump has publicly endorsed Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig’s effort to assert federal authority over prediction markets, calling the issue “critically important” and emphasizing the need for U.S. dominance in emerging financial technologies.
Trump Supports “Exclusive Authority” for CFTC
In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump said it was essential that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission retain exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.
“It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive,” Trump wrote.
The endorsement reinforces Selig’s ongoing position that the agency already holds broad statutory authority over prediction markets and should be the primary regulator for the sector.
Over the past year, CFTC Chair Michael Selig has argued that prediction markets fall under the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction. He has also pursued legal action against several states — including Wisconsin, Illinois, Arizona, Connecticut, and New York — over attempts to regulate the sector under local gaming and gambling laws.
The dispute centers on whether prediction markets should be treated as federally regulated derivatives or as gambling products subject to state oversight, particularly when linked to sports-related events.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have become central to the debate as usage has surged since the 2024 U.S. election cycle.
Trump Identifies Crypto as a Strategic Industry
Trump also used his statement to reiterate support for the broader cryptocurrency sector, describing it as a “major industry” and warning that other countries are competing to dominate it.
He said:
“Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top… we are currently the Crypto (Bitcoin, etc.) Capital of the World.”
The remarks underscore growing political attention on digital assets and prediction markets as part of broader financial infrastructure competition.
The comments come amid scrutiny of the CFTC’s internal dynamics. A recent New York Times investigation reported that career officials who raised concerns about firms with ties to the Trump family — including prediction market platforms and crypto companies — were pushed out of the agency.
In response, Senator Richard Blumenthal criticized the regulator, writing that the CFTC had become a “craven tool of prediction markets & shady crypto firms,” and accusing it of weakening enforcement while pressuring state regulators.
Growing Stakes for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have rapidly evolved into a fast-growing segment of crypto-linked financial products, allowing users to trade on real-world outcomes such as elections, economic data, and sporting events.
The regulatory battle now unfolding between federal and state authorities could determine how these markets scale in the U.S., and whether they remain treated as financial derivatives or fall under gambling law frameworks.
