Hassan Maishera
TL;DR
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Bitcoin’s short-term trader unrealized profit margin has reached 33%, its highest level since December 2024.
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Holders realized profits equivalent to 25,700 BTC on September 22, the largest daily figure of 2026.
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Apparent Bitcoin spot demand remains in contraction, while speculative futures demand growth has slowed sharply.
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CryptoQuant identifies support near $80,000, $71,000 and $67,000, while maintaining a bullish broader outlook.
Bitcoin could face a near-term correction as elevated trader profits and weakening demand threaten to interrupt its recent rally, according to CryptoQuant.
The cryptocurrency reached an eight-month high of $87,400, but several indicators now suggest momentum is fading.
Short-term traders have substantial unrealized gains available to take, while the demand that helped drive prices higher is cooling.
CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said the warning signs do not overturn the broader bullish picture.
Bitcoin’s close above its 365-day moving average last week confirmed a new bull market under the firm’s framework, and its Bitcoin Bull Score Index stands at 90 out of 100.
Trader Profit Margins Raise the Risk of Selling
Short-term traders’ onchain unrealized profit margin has climbed to 33%, its highest reading in 21 months.
Moreno said comparable margins have historically encouraged profit-taking because traders have more gains available to lock in.
The reading indicates that recent buyers are sitting on sizable paper profits, potentially increasing their incentive to sell if momentum weakens.
Actual profit realization has also accelerated. Bitcoin holders realized profits equivalent to 25,700 BTC on September 22, marking the largest single-day figure of 2026.
According to Moreno, that activity confirms holders were taking profits as Bitcoin approached its recent highs. Similar bursts of selling after strong rallies have historically preceded local market tops.
The distinction matters: a local top can lead to a temporary correction without necessarily ending the broader bull market.
Altcoin Exchange Deposits Point to Wider Pressure
Potential selling activity is also becoming more widespread across altcoins.
The seven-day cumulative number of altcoin inflow transactions to exchanges reached 76,000, its highest level since October 17, 2025. Moreno noted that the earlier reading occurred 11 days after Bitcoin’s previous all-time high.
Over the same period, the number of addresses depositing altcoins on exchanges rose to 51,000, also the highest since October 2025.
The increase across addresses suggests the activity extends beyond a small group of large wallets. More holders appear to be moving assets onto trading platforms.
Exchange deposits do not establish that every transferred coin will be sold. Nevertheless, Moreno views the increase as a warning because holders commonly move assets to exchanges when preparing to sell.
Spot and Futures Demand Lose Momentum
The demand picture presents another challenge to Bitcoin’s recovery. CryptoQuant’s apparent spot demand measure has continued contracting, shrinking by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. That suggests the recent price advance has occurred without a corresponding improvement in the firm’s spot-demand indicator.
Meanwhile, speculative futures demand growth has slowed dramatically, falling from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC on September 29.
Moreno described futures speculation as the main driver of the recent rally. Its slowdown therefore leaves Bitcoin with less support from the segment that had been propelling prices higher.
With spot demand still contracting and futures growth stalling, sustaining further gains becomes more difficult unless fresh buying emerges.
Bitcoin’s First Support Sits Near $80,000
If a correction develops, Moreno identifies the 365-day moving average near $80,000 as Bitcoin’s first support level.
Below that, the 200-day moving average around $71,000 represents another potential support area. The on-chain realized price near $67,000 provides a further reference point.
Moreno said a retreat toward these levels could represent healthy consolidation within a young bull market, provided support holds.
The broader outlook remains bullish under CryptoQuant’s framework, but the immediate picture is more cautious.
Elevated profit margins, substantial realized gains, rising exchange deposits, and slowing demand together suggest Bitcoin may need to consolidate before extending its advance.
