Hassan Maishera
Key takeaways
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Bitcoin (BTC) is holding its recent gains above $74,000 amid improved risk sentiment.
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The positive performance is driven by hopes that the US and Iran may extend a two‑week truce to continue diplomatic negotiations
Bitcoin Holds Above $74K Amid US-Iran Truce
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade above $75,000 on Thursday, maintaining its gains as improved risk sentiment boosts demand for riskier assets. The possibility of a US-Iran peace deal, alongside steady institutional interest, is supporting Bitcoin’s price. However, on-chain data suggests potential profit-taking and distribution activity that may limit further upside movement for Bitcoin.
Risk Sentiment Improves Amid US-Iran Truce
Bitcoin’s price extended its gains this week, reaching an over two-month high of $76,038 on Tuesday before pulling back slightly and steadying around $74,400.
Improved sentiment surrounding the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran truce, has contributed to increased risk appetite in the market. US President Donald Trump indicated that the war was "close to over," with speculation of a potential two-week extension of the ceasefire circulating in the media.
Traders should remain cautious, however, as any negative news regarding the US-Iran conflict could quickly dampen market sentiment and cap Bitcoin’s potential for further price appreciation.
Institutional demand appears to be returning, with Bitcoin spot ETFs seeing inflows of $186.03 million on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive day of positive inflows this week.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin could experience further upward momentum. The return of institutional interest suggests growing optimism around Bitcoin's potential, but traders should keep an eye on any market shifts that could alter this trajectory.
Despite the bullish sentiment, on-chain data shows some worrying signs. Bitcoin is approaching a key resistance zone around the $76,800 level, which has historically acted as a ceiling for price rallies.
According to CryptoQuant’s weekly report, this level aligns with the Traders Realized Price, a key resistance that has historically capped price movements during relief rallies.
Additionally, large deposits of Bitcoin into exchanges have increased sharply, from less than 10% to more than 40% of total exchange inflows within days.
This suggests that institutional and large-holder distribution is driving the increase, a trend that has historically coincided with short-term selling pressure.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Nears Key Resistance Zone
Bitcoin is currently trading just below $75,000, rejecting the key resistance at the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $75,300.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is hovering near 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, suggesting bullish momentum as long as BTC holds above the breakout point near $73,400.
If the bears regain control, initial support will emerge at the 50-day EMA at $71,307, with a deeper pullback potentially exposing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $68,950, rising trendline support near $67,412, and a horizontal support level at $62,950.
However, if Bitcoin closes the daily candle above the 100-day EMA around $75,300 and breaks the $75,680–$75,764 resistance cluster, the next upside target would be the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $78,962, followed by the psychological $80,000 level.
