Hassan Maishera
TL;DR
-
Bitcoin traded below $82,000 on Friday after topping $87,000 last Friday.
-
QCP Capital’s base case sees BTC trading between $80,000 and $90,000 during the fourth quarter.
-
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $238.58 million in net outflows Wednesday, led by BlackRock’s IBIT.
-
ETF demand, interest rates, oil prices and U.S. policy developments remain key catalysts for the quarter.
Bitcoin retreated below $81,000 on Thursday, giving back gains after climbing above $87,000 last Friday to its highest level since September 23.
The pullback comes as QCP Capital forecasts a fourth-quarter trading range of $80,000 to $90,000, with uneven institutional demand and macroeconomic uncertainty limiting the prospect of a sustained breakout.
QCP Identifies $80,000 and $82,000 as an Accumulation Zone
In its Q4 Digital Assets Market Outlook, QCP identified $80,000 to $82,000 as an area to buy bitcoin under its base-case scenario.
The firm said it would reduce exposure around $88,000 to $90,000 if ETF inflows fail to strengthen. Its outlook assumes positive but inconsistent fund inflows, elevated yet stable oil prices, and continued uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act.
For a sustained move beyond the range, QCP wants to see genuine spot buying rather than a rally driven primarily by traders closing short positions.
Its bullish scenario puts bitcoin above $100,000. Potential catalysts include sustained ETF inflows, expanding stablecoin supply, weaker employment data encouraging a Federal Reserve pause, a softer dollar, lower real yields and progress on the Clarity Act.
Conversely, QCP sees a risk of bitcoin falling below the 68,000–70,000 band if Middle East conflict intensifies, lifting oil prices and prompting further rate increases. Renewed ETF withdrawals or forced selling by a corporate bitcoin holder could add pressure.
Bitcoin ETFs Lose $238 Million in One Day
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $238.58 million in net outflows on Thursday. BlackRock’s IBIT led withdrawals with $197.1 million.
Across the past five trading sessions, the funds posted net withdrawals of $370.6 million. That follows an earlier nine-day inflow streak totaling $3.1 billion.
The reversal highlights the inconsistency in institutional demand that underpins QCP’s cautious base case.
Glassnode analysts said bitcoin had retreated from a sell wall near $86,500 toward several concentrations of buy orders.
The largest sits around $81,000, where the firm expects bids to help absorb selling pressure and cushion further declines.
That level falls within QCP’s preferred accumulation zone. However, resting buy orders do not guarantee that support will hold if selling intensifies.
Kraken Economist Suggests Bitcoin May Have Bottomed Earlier This Cycle
Bitcoin reached its record above $126,000 on October 6, 2025, shortly before the October 10 liquidation crash.
Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo noted that previous cycles typically took 12 to 13 months to move from a peak to a bottom. This cycle may have reached its low sooner, he said.
Bitcoin’s roughly 54% drawdown to its July low was shallower than the 70% to 85% declines seen in earlier cycles.
Perfumo pointed to spot ETFs, a more supportive regulatory environment and growing adoption within traditional finance as stronger market foundations. He also said buyers accumulating despite high interest rates and competing investment opportunities may be showing conviction rather than chasing momentum.
Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda said the September Fed meeting minutes leaned toward further tightening, although traders continued to price in an October pause.
Thursday’s initial U.S. jobless claims came in at 197,000, below the 200,000 forecast. The previous week’s reading was revised to 199,000.
Perfumo identified long-term interest rates as a major variable for bitcoin. Easier financial conditions and additional liquidity could shorten its path back toward previous highs, he said.
QCP highlighted the October 27–28 Fed meeting, November 3 U.S. midterm elections and November 4 Treasury refunding announcement as important dates for the quarter.
