Hassan Maishera
TL;DR
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Bitcoin traded below $79,000 after briefly climbing above $82,000 last week.
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A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report increased expectations of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike.
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U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $987 million in weekly inflows, extending their positive streak to three weeks.
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Bitcoin’s realized capitalization rose by $9.36 billion over 30 days, supporting the recovery narrative.
Bitcoin Dips Below $79,000 as Inflation Data Moves Into Focus
Bitcoin traded slightly below the $79,000 level on Tuesday after surrendering part of last week’s gains.
The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization was valued at approximately $78,900. BTC had briefly risen above $82,000 before coming under pressure following Friday’s stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report.
The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly exceeding forecasts of 55,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
The unexpectedly strong labor-market data prompted traders to increase their expectations of another interest-rate hike. The implied probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the Federal Reserve’s September 16 meeting climbed to around 60%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar advanced after the report, placing pressure on Bitcoin and other assets sensitive to changes in interest-rate expectations.
Despite those headwinds, Bitcoin has remained close to the psychologically important $80,000 level.
LMAX Group Market Strategist Joel Kruger said the crypto market continues to demonstrate resilience despite encountering several factors that could have triggered a deeper correction. Bitcoin’s aggressive August rally had pushed momentum indicators into overbought territory, making some profit-taking unsurprising.
Kruger also highlighted rising Treasury yields and higher oil prices following the latest escalation between the United States and Iran. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency market has absorbed these pressures without sustaining significant technical damage.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record a Third Week of Inflows
Institutional demand remained supportive as U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $987 million in net inflows last week.
The result marked a third consecutive week of positive flows, providing a potentially important source of demand as Bitcoin consolidates near $80,000.
However, QCP Capital analysts cautioned that volatile daily ETF flows appear to reflect short-term position adjustments rather than strong directional conviction. Traders may be reducing risk and waiting for clarity from this week’s economic reports.
QCP identified the $80,000–$82,000 range as Bitcoin’s immediate resistance zone. On the downside, the firm placed near-term support between $77,000 and $78,000.
A decisive break above $82,000 could strengthen Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, while a drop below the identified support zone may expose the cryptocurrency to a deeper pullback.
Onchain indicators also suggest that Bitcoin’s recovery is gaining support. The 30-day change in realized capitalization turned positive on August 24 after remaining negative for 87 days, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.
The metric climbed to 0.88% by September 6 as Bitcoin’s realized capitalization increased by $9.36 billion over the preceding 30 days, reaching $1.068 trillion.
Realized capitalization values each Bitcoin at the price at which it last moved onchain. An increase generally indicates that coins are changing hands at higher prices and that fresh capital is entering the market.
Adler said the latest rise supports Bitcoin’s recovery while the asset continues to trade around $80,000.
Inflation Reports Could Determine Bitcoin’s Next Move
Traders are now turning their attention to two important U.S. inflation reports ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 16 meeting.
Producer price data is scheduled for release on Thursday, followed by August’s Consumer Price Index report on Friday. These will be the final major inflation readings available to policymakers before their interest-rate decision.
Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda said headline CPI is expected to remain at 3.4% year over year. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to decline to 2.4%.
A softer core CPI reading could provide sufficient evidence of slowing inflation for the Fed to leave rates unchanged. Conversely, a hotter-than-expected report could strengthen expectations of another increase.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the $77,000–$78,000 support area will therefore be important in the near term. A favorable inflation report could help BTC challenge resistance between $80,000 and $82,000, while renewed rate-hike concerns could place the recent recovery under pressure.
