Melker Bengtsson
TL;DR
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Senate Democrats submitted a counterproposal after rejecting Republicans’ latest version of the CLARITY Act.
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Republicans made 126 changes, including concessions covering ethics rules and state-level enforcement.
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Democrats still want state attorneys general to be able to sue the president directly over alleged violations.
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Republicans need 60 votes in today’s cloture vote but currently lack enough confirmed support.
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Polymarket odds fell to 18%, while a failed vote could delay final House action until after the November midterms.
Senate Democrats submitted their counterproposal to what Republicans have called their “last, best and final offer” on the CLARITY Act late last night. The Republican version on Sunday had 126 changes aimed at accommodating Democrats. Changes included significant concessions on the ethics provision, which had been the toughest point of friction. The counterproposal has not been made public but Republicans say they’re out of concessions.
Democrats Demand Even Stronger Ethics Provisions
Sunday’s version made officials, judges and their spouses either place their crypto holdings in a blind trust or divest them. It also gave state attorneys general an enforcement role. Two rules that had been major sticking points for the Democrats.
Mark Warner, Democratic Senator from Virginia and one of the negotiators on the bill said:
There's been some movement. I don't think the ethics provision is near enough. And again, it's frustrating because we've had these same three issues outstanding for six, eight weeks, and why this couldn't have been dealt with earlier? I'm really concerned.
What Democrats think is missing from the ethics provision: the ability for state attorneys general to sue the President directly. In the current version, they’re only allowed to sue the Attorney General for failing to do so himself.
Cynthia Lummis, the Republican chief negotiator on the bill, vented her frustration on X:
It's becoming clear that some Democrats simply won't get to yes, no matter what we put in the text.
— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) September 14, 2026
President Trump has now agreed to two historic ethics provisions — provisions these very members demanded. We've given you everything you’ve asked for, yet you keep holding the… https://t.co/EecNNlmZVK
The cloture vote, the procedural vote to move the bill to open debate, happens today at 14:15. By then, Republicans have to gather 60 votes to progress it. They currently hold 53 seats in the Senate but not all are expected to vote yes. Senator Hawley has been campaigning for stronger protections of community banks, which was given Sunday, it’s unclear whether he thinks they were enough. Rand Paul is reportedly a no and two are undecided. Nine Democrats likely have to cross the aisle.
Failed Vote Could Delay the Bill Until After the Midterms
After Sunday’s bump in Polymarket odds to 35%, the Democratic rejection and counterproposal pushed the odds back down to just 18%.
What’s encouraging is that there’s at least a counterproposal. Not a walk-out. Democrats think they’re close enough to bother negotiating. Most senators do want to see the bill passed, Republican and Democrats alike, but just need to agree on the ethics provisions.
It remains to be seen if the Republican version from Sunday actually was their best and final offer, or if there’s still room to make a deal. If the vote fails today it likely pushes the final House vote until after November’s midterm elections.
