TL;DR
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JPMorgan released a research note earlier this week concluding that the number of unresolved issues on the CLARITY Act is down from about a dozen to two or three
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The draft was supposed to drop this week but it's now Friday and nothing has been published — banking groups are privately stalling, pushing for further changes
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With midterms and campaigning coming up, timing is getting into trouble — if the bill doesn't hit the Senate floor before the end of May, it could be dead for 2026
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Polymarket odds for the bill passing in 2026 is now down to 59%, down from 82% earlier this year
The CLARITY Act, the bill aiming to bring regulatory clarity to digital assets is in the final stages of negotiations. It passed with strong bipartisan support in the US House of Representatives in July last year but has been stuck since January in the Senate Banking Committee. The last remaining point that parties need to agree on is stablecoin yield.
JPMorgan Report Says Deal is Close
The GENIUS Act, which was written into law on July 18th last year already established that stablecoin issuers, such as Tether and Circle, were not allowed to offer yield on stablecoins. The discussion right now is whether exchanges should be allowed to do that.
Earlier this week, JPMorgan released a research note which concluded that the number of unresolved issues was down from about a dozen to two or three. It also noted that while they haven’t been fully resolved, the discussions on stablecoin yields had been productive. The other issues remaining are thought to be DeFi oversight and token classification.
The main compromise on the stablecoin yield is the Tillis-Alsobrooks framework which was agreed in principle in March and is backed by the White House. It was made by the Republican and Democrat negotiators on the stablecoin yield text Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks. The agreement is that exchanges will not be allowed to offer passive yield but activity based rewards, such as for payments, transfers and platform engagements, are allowed.
Neither side, crypto or TradFi companies, are fully happy with the agreement. Coinbase, for example, has pushed back on transaction and balance caps, while banking groups are reported to have objected to the latest version of the Act.
Delayed Again, Could be Problematic
On Monday, Tillis indicated that the draft would drop this week, but it’s now Friday and no new draft has been published. It’s very likely it will not be published this week. The CLARITY Act is also not on the schedule for the Banking Committee next week. It’s now the banking groups that are privately stalling, pushing for further changes. Tillis has indicated that he’s open to this, which could explain the delay.
With midterms and campaigning timing of the act is now getting into trouble as major bipartisan legislation becomes politically sensitive. Republican senator Bernie Moreno, one of the strongest pro-crypto voices in the senate, has said that if the bill doesn’t hit the Senate floor before the end of May, it could be dead for 2026. Republican senator Cynthia Lummis goes a step further and says that if it doesn’t happen in 2026, the next window could be as far out as 2030. The Polymarket odds for the bill passing in 2026 is now down to 59% - down from 82% earlier this year.
As of now, there are five remaining steps to get the bill passed:
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Senate Banking Committee markup
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Full Senate floor vote
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Reconciliation with Senate Agriculture Committee version
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Reconciliation with House version from July 2025
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Presidential signature
The current step, where we’re now stalled, and the third one are where it might take some time.
Bottom Line
The substance of the act is mostly settled. Speed is necessary now. The Senate calendar is constrained and there needs to be a deal on the remaining point quickly for the act to fit into that calendar this year.
JPMorgan’s report that a deal is close may be true, but the fact is that time is running out. There are only a couple of weeks left for the deal to happen, if the bill is to be passed this year.
