Hassan Maishera
TL;DR
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Bitcoin rose 1.5% to trade above $77,600 after briefly falling to $76,400.
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XRP led major cryptocurrencies with a gain of nearly 3%, while Ether remained below $2,400.
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Buyers defended the average active-investor cost basis near $76,350.
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September has produced an average Bitcoin return of -2.95% since 2013, raising the possibility of a short-term correction.
Bitcoin traded just above $77,200 during Asian hours on Thursday, rising approximately 1.5% over the previous 24 hours.
The cryptocurrency recovered after touching a daily low of $76,400 during late U.S. trading hours. Buyers entered the market near an important investor cost-basis level, preventing a deeper decline.
Bitcoin’s resilience came despite rising oil prices, elevated U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar.
XRP Leads Crypto Market Recovery
XRP was the strongest-performing major cryptocurrency, gaining nearly 3% to trade around $1.36.
BNB rose almost 2% to just below $692, while Solana gained approximately 2% and maintained the psychologically important $100 level.
Tron advanced 1% to roughly $0.33, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE token remained flat just above $82.
Ether underperformed the wider market and traded slightly below $2,400. Despite Thursday’s recovery, most major cryptocurrencies remained in negative territory over the previous seven days.
Ether had fallen almost 4% during the period, while Tron and XRP were each down approximately 3%. Bitcoin recorded a more modest weekly decline of around 1%.
Zcash, trading near $817, and HYPE were the only major assets still holding weekly gains.
The performance gap indicates that Bitcoin has remained more resilient than several large-cap altcoins during the latest period of market uncertainty.
Buyers Defend Bitcoin’s $76,350 Cost Basis
Bitfinex analysts identified $76,350 as the average acquisition price of every active Bitcoin investor on the network.
Bitcoin moved to within approximately $50 of that level before buyers intervened.
According to the analysts, the cost basis has absorbed selling throughout the week from investors who purchased Bitcoin during February and March.
Some of those holders appear to be exiting their positions around breakeven rather than accepting a loss.
Continued support near $76,350 could help Bitcoin maintain its current structure, while a decisive breakdown may increase selling pressure.
Bitfinex warned that Bitcoin could experience another correction in the coming weeks due to historically weak September performance.
“September has historically been a bearish month for BTC, with an average return of -2.95 percent since 2013,” the analysts said.
However, the firm added that Bitcoin’s strong August momentum could support the longer-term trend even if the market experiences a temporary decline during September.
The analysts expect the probability of continued gains on higher timeframes to remain favorable if any correction is contained.
Bitcoin maintained support even as conditions in the bond market became less favorable for risk assets.
Renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices sharply higher and revived inflation concerns.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed above 4.8%, recording its highest closing level since 2023. The U.S. Dollar Index also strengthened to just below 100.
Higher oil prices and bond yields can weigh on Bitcoin by increasing inflation expectations and strengthening the appeal of yield-bearing assets.
September Rate-Hike Odds Fall to 62%
The CME FedWatch tool placed the probability of a quarter-percentage-point Federal Reserve rate increase on September 16 at slightly above 62%.
That was down from more than 67% one day earlier but remained substantially higher than the approximately 37% probability recorded a week ago, before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
Interest-rate futures assigned no probability to a rate cut at the September meeting.
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report could determine expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September decision and influence Bitcoin’s next move.
Options traders have positioned downside protection between $68,000 and $75,000 for the period between the employment report and the September 11 Consumer Price Index release.
Meanwhile, bullish exposure is concentrated in call options above Bitcoin’s current trading range. Leverage in the perpetual futures market also remains well below its August peak, reducing the immediate risk of a large-scale liquidation event.
A weaker-than-expected payrolls report, particularly when combined with Wednesday’s ADP employment data, could lower the probability of a rate hike and help Bitcoin challenge $80,000 again.
A strong report could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy and place renewed pressure on the $76,350 support level.
