Hassan Maishera
TL;DR
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BTC dipped by nearly 24% in the first quarter of 2026, marking the worst Q1 performance since 2018.
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The decline comes amid the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
Bitcoin Lost 24% of Its Value in the First Quarter
The first quarter of 2026 is officially over, and the cryptocurrency market underperformed during this period. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, lost 24% of its value in the first quarter of the year, marking its worst first-quarter performance since 2018.
Official data from Yahoo Finance shows that Bitcoin ended Q1 at $66,619 on Tuesday, down from $87,508 on Jan. 1, 2026. The quarterly drop was the largest since Q1 2018, when bitcoin fell 50% from $14,112 to $6,973.
The dip in Q1 extends the significant decline in the fourth quarter of 2025, when it slipped 23% to $87,508 from $114,057. The current price action indicates that Bitcoin has lost about 41.6% of its value over the past six months.
The current bearish performance comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, weighing on investor sentiment across both crypto and traditional equities.
In an email to Cryptowisser, Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, stated that,
“I would focus on how tech stocks, especially software companies, are behaving, as I see a strong connection between them and Bitcoin. In general, Bitcoin tends to move in line with stock markets over the long term, especially with the S&P 500. However, there are periods when they move differently. For example, from October to February, when Bitcoin was falling, the index stayed near its highs.
If we look closer, we can see that some groups of stocks, like software companies, actually have a stronger correlation with Bitcoin than the overall index.”
He added that while indicators show that Bitcoin is currently oversold, it doesn’t mean that its price would recover in the near term.
“However, the key question is how long it can stay in this condition - it could be a week or several months. Also, being oversold doesn’t mean the price can’t continue to fall further,” the analyst added.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Saw Net Outflows in Q1
Institutional interest in Bitcoin has declined over the last three months. According to SoSoValue data, spot bitcoin ETFs saw $496.5 million in net outflows during the first quarter, with outflows of $1.8 billion in the first two months partially offset by $1.32 billion in inflows in March.
Analysts are optimistic that Bitcoin’s price will rally higher in the long-term despite the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and negative ETF flows.
There are signs that the Middle East crisis could end soon, with President Trump announcing a few hours ago that the U.S.-Iran conflict could end in two to three weeks, even if they don't reach a deal.
However, reversing the current market trend for Bitcoin will require renewed ETF inflows, clearer progress on crypto-friendly U.S. regulations, and a shift toward easier monetary conditions.
