Hassan Maishera
TL;DR
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Cardano (ADA) remains under bearish pressure, trading below $0.250 after a 15% drop over two weeks.
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Negative funding rates and a falling long-to-short ratio signal strong bearish sentiment in derivatives markets, while the price staying below key moving averages confirms weakening momentum.
Cardano remains under pressure, trading below $0.250 on Monday after declining more than 15% over the past two weeks, as weakening derivatives positioning and a deteriorating technical setup point to continued downside risk.
Derivatives Data Shows Growing Bearish Bias
Recent derivatives metrics suggest traders are increasingly positioning for further declines.
Funding rates tracked by CoinGlass turned negative on Sunday, with a rate of around -0.0078% on Monday. Negative funding rates typically indicate that short positions are paying long positions, reflecting bearish sentiment and a market leaning toward downside expectations.
In addition, ADA’s long-to-short ratio has fallen to 0.65, near its lowest level in a month. A reading below 1.0 indicates that more traders are holding short positions than longs, reinforcing the view that sentiment in derivatives markets has shifted firmly bearish.
Cardano Technical Outlook: Bears continue to dominate
The ADA/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient. At press time, ADA is trading at $0.2430, below key trend indicators, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are clustered between roughly $0.256 and $0.350. This positioning keeps the broader trend tilted downward.
A recent failed attempt to break above a descending resistance trendline near $0.268 further reinforces the idea that upside momentum remains capped.
Momentum indicators are also weakening, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) now at 45, and the MACD remaining in negative territory.
If the market undergoes a recovery, immediate resistance is seen near the 50-day EMA around $0.256 and the trendline resistance at $0.268.
A daily candle close above these levels would allow ADA to extend its rally towards the recent 4-hour swing high of $0.2804.
However, if the bears continue to dominate, initial support emerges around $0.236. A decisive break below this level could open the door to further losses, with broader downside risk remaining intact as long as ADA trades beneath its long-term moving averages.
Currently, the structure continues to favor sellers, with both derivatives positioning and technical indicators aligning toward sustained bearish momentum.
