Hassan Maishera
TL;DR
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Bitcoin’s 24% two-week rally has stalled, leaving the asset trading between $76,000 and $82,000.
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CryptoQuant identifies heavy on-chain resistance between $77,100 and $80,200 due to long-term holder selling.
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A close above the 365-day moving average near $81,700 could confirm the start of a new bull market.
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Additional resistance levels sit at $83,600 and $88,700, where trader profit-taking could intensify.
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Bitcoin’s main downside supports are located near $70,000 and within the $62,000-to-$65,000 accumulation zone.
Bitcoin’s market outlook remains constructive, but the cryptocurrency must overcome a dense cluster of resistance levels before confirming the beginning of a new bull market, according to CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin’s 24% rally over two weeks has stalled, leaving the asset trading within a range between $76,000 and $82,000. The cryptocurrency is currently hovering near $77,000 as traders assess whether the recovery can develop into a sustained upward trend.
“The trend is still constructive, but a wall of resistance stands in the way,” CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said in a Friday report.
Long-Term Holder Sales Create Resistance Near $80,200
Bitcoin’s first major resistance zone extends from $77,100 to $80,200, according to Moreno.
The area represents the nearest and strongest on-chain supply barrier above the current price. Long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC during a 30-day period this year, creating potential selling pressure as Bitcoin returns to that range.
Overcoming this supply zone would place the cryptocurrency within reach of its 365-day moving average, which currently stands near $81,700.
CryptoQuant considers the $81,700 level particularly important because Bitcoin’s previous bull markets have historically begun after the asset closed above its 365-day moving average.
A decisive move above the indicator could therefore confirm the start of a new bull market. Failure to reclaim it may leave Bitcoin trading within its existing range.
The next resistance level sits around $83,600, based on CryptoQuant’s three-times Metcalfe valuation band. The model estimates Bitcoin’s value using network-activity metrics such as active addresses.
These valuation bands have marked significant levels during previous market cycles. The three-times band stood at $138,000 when Bitcoin reached its record high of $126,000 in October 2025. Meanwhile, the two-times band traded close to Bitcoin’s price when it first crossed $100,000 in December 2024.
Profit-Taking Could Intensify Near $88,700
If Bitcoin clears the $83,600 barrier, another potential resistance level awaits at approximately $88,700.
That level represents the upper band of CryptoQuant’s trader realized price model, which tracks the average acquisition price of active market participants.
Moreno said the upper band has historically been an area where traders begin taking profits, meaning Bitcoin could encounter renewed selling pressure if it advances toward $88,700.
Bitcoin Support Sits at $70,000 and $62,000
On the downside, Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average near $70,000 represents its first significant technical support.
A stronger demand zone lies between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders accumulated approximately 476,000 BTC this year. That concentration of buying could help absorb selling pressure during a deeper correction.
CryptoQuant maintains that Bitcoin’s overall outlook is bullish. However, the cryptocurrency must absorb the overhead supply and break through its valuation ceilings before beginning another sustained rally.
